Holy Roman Empire

In the Vienna Palace, Franz was holding a year-end meeting when an unexpected telegram interrupted the proceedings.

On November 27, 1879, Russian reinforcements en route to Brest were ambushed by Prussian forces, marking a turning point on the southwestern front.

At first glance, the Austrian government seemed primarily concerned with the war’s ultimate outcome, and shifts in regional battlefields would not typically warrant such heightened attention. However, the southwestern front was an exception.

On one hand, the Russian government had mortgaged the land west of the Dnieper River to Austria. If these territories fell into the hands of the Prussian-Polish Federation, it would become exceedingly difficult for the Austrian government to recover the loans it lent (Ukraine in particular).

On the other hand, trade exports played a significant role. Since the war began, the Russian government had been purchasing vast amounts of supplies from Austria.

If the Dnieper River trade routes were severed, transportation limitations would severely impact Austro-Russian trade relations.

In anticipation of war profits, the Austrian government had ramped up production. Many state-owned enterprises had expanded their production lines, and any reduction in Austro-Russian trade would result in significant financial losses for these businesses.

With such critical economic interests at stake, the government had every reason to take the matter seriously.

As for the year-end meeting, while it was indeed important, its significance paled in comparison to the unfolding crisis.

The year-end meeting agenda included a review of political, economic, diplomatic, and military developments over the past year, along with the government’s plans for the coming year.

Each department had already prepared its reports, and presenting them to Franz was largely a preliminary step in securing next year’s budget allocations.

Most of these plans aligned closely with Franz’s overarching national policies. While he dictated strategic direction, the day-to-day planning and execution were left to the cabinet ministers.

…

Franz asked, “Chief of Staff, tell us about the current situation at the front!”

“Yes, Your Majesty!” Chief of the General Staff Albrecht responded.

“Yesterday afternoon, the Russian reinforcements departing from Volhynia to support Brest were ambushed by Prussian forces shortly after crossing the Pripyat River.

Because these Russian troops were hastily assembled from various units and lacked proper cohesion, 30,000 Russian soldiers were defeated by a single Prussian division, suffering at least 8,000 casualties.

The remaining troops are now scattered, panicked, and have abandoned large quantities of weapons and equipment. They are incapable of resuming combat in the short term.

Excluding these demoralized forces, the total Russian strength in Volhynia has decreased from the original 102,000 to 67,000, and they no longer hold a numerical advantage over the Prussians.

If I were Moltke, I would abandon Brest and shift the main offensive toward Kovel. Capturing this location would provide a strategic advantage, allowing a subsequent advance either eastward to Kyiv or northward to Brest.

However, the Prussians have only gained a temporary advantage on the southwestern front. In the north, Russian forces are on the verge of capturing Riga, and the Vidzeme Upland defense line is on the brink of collapse. In the central front, Smolensk has turned into a meat grinder.

From the current situation, it seems likely that the Russians will adopt a combined land-sea strategy. Leveraging their naval superiority, they stand a strong chance of dominating the Baltic coastline.”

Franz asked further, “So, it seems Moltke must be under tremendous pressure right now?”

Albrecht replied confidently, “Exactly!”

If the Prussian army fails to achieve a substantial breakthrough on the battlefield and the Russians take action in the Baltic Sea, severely threatening the Prussian homeland, the naval faction within the Prussian government will gain momentum, and things will get complicated.

When vital interests are at stake, the coastal population will certainly rise in protest, giving the naval faction the leverage they need. Even with Moltke’s towering reputation, he won’t be able to withstand pressure from all sides.

Franz sighed silently. No matter how brilliant a general may be, they often seem powerless in the face of internal crises. Moltke’s eagerness to secure a breakthrough on the southwestern front is likely driven by this very concern.

From a purely military perspective, allowing the Russian army to penetrate deeper into Poland and then encircling and annihilating them might actually offer a higher chance of success.

Not only would this strategy benefit from strong local support, but it would also ease logistical pressures and shorten the frontlines, allowing more troops to be concentrated for a decisive battle with the Russian army.

However, what makes sense militarily would be a disaster politically. Allowing the Russians to advance into Poland would alienate the Polish population and damage their loyalty.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg interjected, “According to the intelligence we’ve received, Russian diplomatic efforts have also achieved a breakthrough.

It seems they’ve made secret promises to Denmark. Just a week ago, the Danish government submitted a naval exercise plan to the Nordic Federal Council, scheduled to take place in the Danish Straits.

If this plan is approved, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s maritime transport routes will be effectively cut off. The Russians must have offered significant incentives, as even the Swedes seem to be wavering. The chances of approval are quite high.”

A naval blockade wouldn’t spell the end for the Prussian-Polish Federation. They could still transport supplies through the German Federal Empire via the Elbe River.

However, this would significantly increase the burden on their logistics. More importantly, the stance of the Nordic Federation remains crucial, and the diplomatic situation is decidedly unfavorable for the Prussian government.

If the Prussian-Polish Federation begins to falter on the battlefield, who can guarantee that the Nordic Federation won’t take the opportunity to kick them while they’re down?

The Danes have always yearned to reclaim the two duchies (Schleswig and Holstein). If the Russians are willing to offer the Swedes a high enough price, anything could happen.

The complex and uncertain situation gave Franz a severe headache. He had initially believed that the combination of Wilhelm I and Moltke was already formidable. But it turns out that Alexander II is no easy opponent either.

During the previous Russo-Prussian War, Alexander II had not yet fully matured as a leader and could only be considered a half-baked emperor—slightly inferior in strategies. But this time, he has returned much stronger.

Since the beginning of the war, Franz has yet to see any signs of a rebellion breaking out in Russia and that alone is a remarkable achievement.

It’s worth noting that in modern history, the Russian government has always been an anomaly. Every time they engaged in a foreign war, domestic uprisings would inevitably erupt.

The absence of such issues indicates that Alexander II’s reforms have been successful. A stable Russian Empire is unquestionably a terrifying force.

After hesitating for a moment, Franz said coldly, “For now, do not act rashly on the diplomatic front. Unless the Nordic Federation directly joins the war or the battlefield situation spirals completely out of control, we will continue to maintain neutrality.

The General Staff must closely monitor the course of the war. If either side seems poised to gain an overwhelming advantage, I must be informed immediately.

From the current situation, it seems that the Russians have the upper hand. In that case, we will remain passive for now and wait for Britain and France to support the Prussian-Polish Federation.

If the balance of power shifts, we will secretly sell Maxim machine gun technology to the weaker side, teach them trench warfare tactics, and, if necessary, sell mortars as well.”

Maintaining battlefield balance has always been a coordinated effort among Britain, France, and Austria. For example: If the Prussian-Polish Federation weakens, Britain and France are responsible for supplying aid; If Russia weakens, Austria will step in to provide support.

In short, whoever is weaker gets support. The ultimate goal of the three old empires is for Prussia and Russia to exhaust each other, preventing either from emerging as a dominant fourth power.

Or rather, it’s the shared will of Austria and France as Britain’s stance remains uncertain. In such matters, British strategy has always been somewhat ambiguous.

When it comes to low-tech weapons, Franz never considered them worth keeping secret. If they weren’t introduced earlier, it was simply because there was no need.

To achieve strategic objectives, tossing a few pieces of technology into the mix isn’t a big deal at all.

If not for performance concerns, Franz was even prepared to release tank technology.

Unfortunately, this technology, if released prematurely, would likely fail to achieve its intended impact.

The steam-powered tanks, with their massive size, slow speed, and poor maneuverability, were essentially easy targets for artillery on the battlefield.

As for internal combustion engine-powered tanks, their performance was insufficient, their costs were exorbitant, and their cost-effectiveness was abysmally low, essentially making them unaffordable.

Even Austria couldn’t afford them so Franz didn’t believe that either Prussia or Russia could manage it. Besides, they couldn’t produce the engines themselves.

Although internal combustion engines had been around for some time, they were still considered cutting-edge technology.

Apart from Austria, which had made significant advancements due to Franz’s influence, other countries had invested very little in research and development in this area.

Technological progress requires substantial financial investment, and without adequate funding, results are hard to achieve.

“Yes, Your Majesty!” Albrecht replied.

After this brief interlude, Franz asked again, “What’s the situation in South America? Have the Chileans released our ships?”

The British government, acting like an ostrich, had handed over the seized ships to the Chilean authorities, leaving Austria to deal directly with Chile instead.

Bullying the weak while avoiding conflict with the strong has always been the classic strategy of the great powers. Demanding compensation from Britain and demanding it from Chile were two entirely different matters.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg smiled and said, “Those three little players in South America are still locked in a fierce struggle, and it seems unlikely that they’ll reach a decisive outcome anytime soon.

Since the British transferred the seized ships to the Chilean government, progress has been much smoother. The only remaining issue is that the cargo from the seized ships is missing, and we’re currently negotiating compensation with the Chileans.

If the British hadn’t intervened so suddenly, we would have already signed an agreement with the Chilean government by now.

Perhaps the British overplayed their hand with greed, which sparked dissatisfaction from the Chilean government. Now, they seem eager to bring us and the French into the equation to counterbalance British influence.”

This was indeed good news. Although Chilean saltpeter wasn’t the only source as Austria had discovered some saltpeter deposits in its own colonies, importing Chilean saltpeter was still the most cost-effective option.

As for the conflicts of interest between the two countries, they pale in comparison to mutual benefits.

Thinking about this, Franz suddenly realized that this Chilean government was far from simple-minded.

By courting favor with Austria and France, they seemed to be sacrificing national interests, but in reality, they were laying the groundwork for victory in their war.

Without first securing support from the two powerful nations, even if they defeated Peru and Bolivia, they wouldn’t be able to fully enjoy the spoils of war.

History is filled with examples of military victories being undone by diplomatic failures.

The Chilean government clearly understood the nature of great powers and had used the ship seizure incident to take timely remedial measures.

Franz couldn’t help but sigh, “No country rises to prominence by mere luck.”

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