Holy Roman Empire

While the Prussian government was still troubled by the refugee crisis, the situation had already spiraled out of control as the people below made decisions on their behalf.

It all began when the sheer number of incoming refugees overwhelmed local relief efforts. Desperate with hunger, a group of refugees looted a noble estate in Skwierzyna and accidentally killed the elderly count who was inspecting the property.

Looting incidents had happened before, but the killing of a high-ranking noble was unprecedented. Perhaps realizing the gravity of the situation, the refugees, in a bid to survive, decided to cover up the crime by silencing witnesses.

However, the refugees, being a disorganized and temporary group, couldn’t possibly cover their tracks entirely. Evidence was left behind, and soon, the news of the crime leaked, causing widespread outrage. Naturally, the nobility sought revenge.

The influx of refugees had disrupted more than just the lives of local aristocrats. The general population had also suffered significant losses and was already deeply resentful. With someone taking the lead, many rallied to join the cause.

Chaos erupted. Once the knives were drawn, there was no turning back. In an attempt to restore order, the Prussian government immediately ordered the military to intervene.

At this point, however, the Prussian government had already lost control of the situation. Local troops, naturally more sympathetic to the local population, turned their bayonets on the refugees.

Perhaps many of the refugees were innocent, but by this point, no one could—or wanted to—make such distinctions. A massacre then began.

Upon hearing the news of the slaughter, Wilhelm I’s first instinct was to order an immediate halt. But he quickly abandoned the idea.

It was a choice without options: either side with the refugees and offend the Prussian nobility, capitalists, and ordinary citizens, or side with the Prussian populace and act as if nothing had happened.

There was no need to think about it too much. The Prussian government knew exactly where they stood. As for the refugees lying in pools of blood, they saw nothing and knew nothing.

A grim and surreal scene unfolded where Russian forces drove refugees out, and Prussian forces did the same, the two sides unwittingly composing a “symphony of slaughter.”

The fallout led to a mutiny among Polish soldiers in the Prussian army. If not for the Russians’ excessive caution, fearing a trap and refraining from advancing, it’s likely the Prussian government would have been left with nothing to govern at all.

…

The sudden massacre left the European world collectively speechless.

Condemn it?

The media was already doing so. Newspapers and radio broadcasts were loudly denouncing the atrocities committed by the Prussian and Russian governments, though plenty also criticized the refugees.

Journalists, after all, need to make a living, and their positions inevitably reflect the interests of their patrons.

...

At the Vienna Palace, this shocking piece of news pulled Franz back to reality from his introspective thoughts.

How should this matter be defined? It was yet another vexing question. From the perspective of an observer, Franz couldn’t determine who was right or wrong.

Were the refugees at fault? The answer was both yes and no.

In their pursuit of survival, they weren’t necessarily wrong. But in ensuring their own survival at the expense of harming others, they were gravely in the wrong.

The tragedy in Skwierzyna was no isolated incident. Along the path of their escape, countless other innocent lives were lost.

Perhaps only a portion of the refugees committed wrongdoing, but no one had the ability or the desire to distinguish between them. Others shouldn’t be expected to pay the price for their mistakes.

Human nature is fragile, especially when confronted with hunger.

Were the Prussian nobles and citizens at fault? The answer, again, is both yes and no.

Defending their own interests and suppressing rioters was undoubtedly justified. But deliberately magnifying the problem to implicate the entire refugee population, now that was problematic.

As an observer, however, Franz felt he had no right to judge them. The crisis could have been resolved earlier. Why demand that people fix things only after a disaster has already occurred?

Any shrewd person could see that after losing the Polish territories, the Prussian government no longer had the capacity to aid so many refugees.

Without relief supplies, unrest among the refugees was inevitable. It was something no amount of human effort could change.

If the war didn’t end soon, even if the Prussian nobles and capitalists were to open their granaries together, it still wouldn’t make a difference.

For the sake of their own interests and the nation they sought to protect, they chose the simplest and most practical solution, which was arguably not entirely wrong.

Even the Russians expelling refugees could be understood. Setting aside morality, the Russian government was incapable of providing aid to the refugees. To prevent more people from becoming refugees, their expulsion was, in fact, a last resort.

Franz was no idealist. He knew how to approach the issue rationally. A refugee crisis involving 3 to 4 million people would be a monumental challenge to handle, even in the 21st century, let alone in this era.

A simple mathematical calculation reveals the scope of the problem. Assuming each person needs one pound of grain daily, three million refugees would require 1,500 tons of grain per day, while four million would need 2,000 tons.

This is just the theoretical minimum. In practice, this amount of grain would likely fall short. While high-calorie grains might meet basic survival needs with a pound per person, cheaper, low-calorie foods would require much larger quantities.

People of this era tend to eat more. A robust adult consuming three to five pounds of food in one meal is hardly unusual and most would be considered “big eaters” by modern standards.

Disaster relief doesn’t aim to feed people to satiety, feeding them just enough to keep them alive is good enough. Even at a conservative estimate of 2,000 tons of grain daily for the refugees, when accounting for transport losses, this figure would need to rise to at least 2,500 tons.

And grain is only one part of the equation. Other supplies are equally essential. With such a massive refugee population, robust epidemic prevention measures would be critical. Otherwise, the outbreak of disease could spell disaster.

Preliminary estimates suggest that tents, clothing, medicine, coal, daily necessities, and other supplies would cost no less than hundreds of millions of guilders to procure.

Even if the supplies were fully prepared, a daily transport capacity of over 10,000 tons would be required to meet the demand.

This figure may seem manageable, but it represents daily requirements, not monthly or yearly.

Franz didn’t know how other countries might handle the situation, but Austria certainly lacked the capacity to transport that much material, not even half of it.

Perhaps if all of Europe joined forces, the refugee crisis could be resolved. However, the chances of success would still be no more than one in three.

Attempting the impossible could mark someone as a hero or a fool. Franz was neither, so he chose to observe the situation from the sidelines.

That said, he wasn’t entirely indifferent. He had at least donated money, and although it was barely a drop in the ocean, it was still an effort.

While he couldn’t influence the larger situation, Austria couldn’t ignore the refugees arriving at its borders. With Prussia and Russia refusing them entry, the refugees had no choice but to head for Austria.

This path was no easier. Prussia and Russia couldn’t risk giving the impression that they were driving refugees toward Austria, so they had to intercept them.

The results weren’t worth mentioning. Refugee numbers along Austria’s borders continued to rise. If the Austrian government hadn’t prepared in advance, the situation would have spiraled out of control.

Even with preparations in place, Austria could barely manage to provide food. Maintaining order relied on the military, and nearly every refugee camp had a few criminals publicly executed at its gates.

Happiness is all about comparison. After witnessing the atrocities committed by Prussia and Russia, Austria’s methods didn’t seem nearly as unacceptable.

Protests?

Not likely. Anyone causing trouble was dealt with harshly and publicly. These refugees were all illegal entrants, with no recognized rights. Deaths went unacknowledged, and breaking any camp rules could easily result in someone becoming an example for others.

Looking at the latest statistics, Franz felt overwhelmed. He suspected something was wrong with the world. Austria had somehow taken in over a million refugees.

Frowning, Franz asked, “Prime Minister, is this data accurate? How could there be so many refugees?”

The larger the numbers, the harder it was to manage. Refugees who made it all the way to Austria were either those living nearby or able-bodied individuals.

Refugees traveling with families were manageable, but single, able-bodied individuals posed a risk. The military’s oversight of refugee camps was specifically aimed at preventing such individuals from causing trouble, and the massacre in Skwierzyna had also heightened the Austrian government’s vigilance.

Felix responded with certainty, “There’s no mistake. We’ve triple-checked everything, and every refugee camp’s numbers match up.

The number of refugees has exceeded our expectations, largely due to the atrocities committed by Prussia and Russia. While they’ve also been intercepting refugees, many sympathetic soldiers have secretly allowed people to pass through.

We’ve lodged formal protests with both Prussia and Russia, so this issue should improve going forward.”

Wielding the sword didn’t mean slaughtering millions outright. Most of these refugees were driven to border areas between Prussia and Russia, where one side would push them toward the other. Today they were forced one way; tomorrow, the other. Neither side wanted to take responsibility.

What truly caused mass casualties among the refugees was hunger. No one kept an official count of how many had starved. Some claimed it was hundreds of thousands, others said a million, and some even estimated 2 to 3 million.

Governments across Europe feigned ignorance. At this point, aiding refugees was a thankless task. Doing it well was merely expected, while any shortcomings would invite harsh criticism from the international community.

After a moment of contemplation, Franz shook his head and said, “I’m afraid the situation will get worse. Even if Prussia and Russia cooperate, they may not be able to stop it.

We should select a group of able-bodied young people from the refugees, and if the situation exceeds our capacity, we’ll have to close the border and let them intercept the refugees themselves.

Additionally, the government must implement disease prevention measures. Refugees should be confined to the camps and prohibited from interacting with the local population. Those who attempt to seek relatives or friends must be checked by doctors first and only allowed to leave once cleared.”

When people’s survival is at stake, they often unleash their greatest potential. Unless the Russian and Prussian armies are allowed to use extreme force, there will always be those who manage to break through the blockade.

This is something Prussia and Russia cannot fully control. The Russian government is in a slightly better position, at least able to control the army. However, Franz certainly wouldn’t praise Prussia’s control over its military.

If Russia were willing to pay a high price to buy off the Junker nobility, whether the Prussian government would even still exist is unknown.

With so many refugees flooding in, Austria wouldn’t be able to contain it either. To prevent the situation from worsening, the only solution is to apologize to those who come after.

The theory of scattered settlement is just that—a theory. Language barriers make communication impossible, the health of the refugees is unknown, and whether they carry diseases remains uncertain. If they’re scattered blindly, one mistake could cause national instability.

The refugees who arrived first are true refugees, but those who come later are the ones who have crawled out of piles of corpses. It’s unclear whether they still retain any humanity, and the outcome arising from it is also uncertain.

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