Holy Roman Empire

Interests drive people’s hearts, and Austria was unwilling to yield to Britain on the South American issue. France was equally reluctant to see its own interests suffer.

When Peru and Bolivia decided to continue the war, the French government readily agreed.

Over time, the French Empire continued to grow stronger, and nationalism within the country flourished.

Rising nationalists naturally refused to accept a position subordinate to the British. Coupled with centuries-old animosity and conflicting interests, the French public strongly resented the pro-British faction within the government.

During the era of Napoleon III, thanks to the achievements of annexing Italy, these contradictions could still be suppressed.

However, under Napoleon IV, the situation changed. Upon his ascension, the government fell into chaos, and the pro-British faction, which once dominated, faced attacks from all sides.

Politicians are inherently pragmatic. Aligning with Britain was once a matter of necessity, but now it had become an obstacle and a burden. Shifting political positions was a natural outcome.

This shift wasn’t limited to Britain alone. In recent years, the French government’s foreign policy had become significantly more assertive compared to Napoleon III’s era.

In this era of survival of the fittest, an assertive foreign policy could only be supported by robust national strength.

It must be admitted that France’s strength had grown rapidly in recent decades, accompanied by a surge in nationalism. Especially after annexing Italy, expansionist sentiment within France had become increasingly pronounced.

During the reign of Napoleon III, capitalists were restrained, and interest groups exercised some restraint. After Napoleon IV ascended to the throne and the government fell into internal strife, control over capital weakened.

As the saying goes, “Three days without discipline, and they’ll climb onto the roof.” After enjoying a few years of freedom, the capitalists, blinded by greed, began to believe naively that the French military was the strongest in the world.

With such strength, they naturally felt entitled to matching benefits. Perhaps the memory of the Napoleonic Wars still haunted them, and fearing backlash and encirclement, they remained in a phase of diplomatic probing.

With each of the three great powers harboring their own agendas, mediation became nothing more than “flowers in a mirror, the moon in water”—an illusion.

When the “Guano War” evolved into a strategic game between Britain, France, and Austria, it ceased to be merely a territorial and economic dispute among the three South American nations.

…

London

Foreign Secretary Edward slowly set down his coffee cup and said, “Our two allies are restless again. It seems that the Russo-Prussian War hasn’t placed enough pressure on them since they still have the energy to meddle in South America.”

“That outcome was inevitable. Over the past two decades, the strength of France and Austria has grown rapidly, and ambition naturally followed.

As long as France and Austria don’t directly confront each other, the situation in Europe won’t spiral out of control. With the lessons of the Russo-Prussian War fresh in their minds, even the most ambitious decision-makers in France and Austria will think carefully before taking action,” replied Chancellor of the Exchequer Garfield with a smile.

Clearly, the developments in South America were not enough to alarm the British government.

As rivals, it was normal for them to engage in small maneuvers against each other. If there had been no activity for several years, that would have been cause for concern.

The British were not concerned about France and Austria stirring up trouble overseas. With the strength of the Royal Navy, they could suppress any disturbance. As long as the balance of power in Europe remained intact, Britain would face no real danger.

The brutality of the Russo-Prussian War was bound to influence the strategic decisions of every European nation. No one wanted to engage in a mutually destructive war while letting opportunistic third parties reap the benefits.

On the European continent today, the primary conflict was between Prussia and Russia. Although there were numerous disagreements between Britain, France, and Austria, they had not escalated to the point of war.

Without a war to reshuffle the deck, the balance of power in Europe would remain unbroken, and the British government could continue to sit comfortably on its throne.

Britain’s global hegemony was established after the Napoleonic Wars under the Vienna System crafted by Metternich, which brought thirty years of continental stability. This stability gave Britain the breathing room to build its global empire.

Prime Minister Benjamin said, “Since France and Austria want to play, we’ll accompany them to the end. This is an excellent opportunity to remind them of their place, lest they continue making foolish moves.”

The absence of a strategic threat did not mean the British government would allow such behavior to go unchecked. The subtle maneuvers of France and Austria still harmed British interests.

In international politics, tit-for-tat moves and mutual sabotage were inevitable. In this regard, the British had the most experience.

Although the South American nations had gained independence, their limited power prevented them from fully escaping European influence.

In a world that had already been carved up, the weaker South American nations became the next targets for Britain, France, and Austria.

Even if direct colonial rule wasn’t feasible, turning South America into an economic colony was still an attractive option.

The War of the Pacific was not just a conflict over territory and resources between Chile, Bolivia, and Peru, it was also a strategic contest between Britain, France, and Austria for influence in the region.

In this regard, France and Austria were at a disadvantage. Austria had joined the colonial race too late, while France, due to the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, had missed the best opportunities for expansion.

Without the War of the Pacific, and if Britain had not supported Chile, Peru and Bolivia might not have been inclined to turn to France and Austria.

…

At the Vienna Palace, news of Britain’s intervention had already reached Franz.

Franz wasn’t surprised by such developments. What did surprise him, however, was the intensity of Britain’s reaction which seemed to be aimed at completely squeezing France and Austria out of South America.

On February 11, 1880, Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, and Ecuador, under the pretext of “maintaining world peace,” announced an embargo on supplies to the three warring nations: Chile, Bolivia, and Peru.

While the embargo appeared to target all three nations equally, in reality, it primarily affected Peru and Bolivia. Chile, with its far superior access to maritime transport, could bypass the restrictions much more easily than its landlocked adversaries.

With the embargo enforced, the Peru-Bolivia alliance was left with only one remaining “lifeline”: the Republic of Colombia.

However, even this lifeline was hanging by a thread, vulnerable to being severed at any moment.

Recently, Colombia had been in frequent contact with the British. If not for the considerable influence of France and Austria in Colombia, and the Colombian government’s fear of provoking these two powers, Colombia might have already joined the embargo alliance.

The reasons behind the embargo were multifaceted. Beyond British influence, the driving force was primarily self-interest.

To understand this, one had to look back to the Wars of Independence. In their fight against Spanish colonial rule, the South American nations had formed alliances and cooperated closely.

But as the saying goes: “It is easy to share hardship, but difficult to share prosperity.” After expelling the Spaniards, dividing the spoils became contentious. At that moment, every nation felt it had made the greatest contribution and thus deserved the largest share.

In the face of interests, former allies had turned into today’s enemies. These conflicts had sown the seeds for the chaotic wars that would follow in South America.

The “Guano War” was just one example along with the earlier Paraguayan War.

As for the causes, consequences, and questions of right or wrong, Franz had long since lost interest in sorting them out. In this era of the strong preying on the weak, the victor would always remain beyond reproach.

Franz asked, “Given the current situation, how likely is it that Colombia will align itself with Chile?”

After a brief moment of thought, Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “If neither we nor the French intervene, Colombia’s participation in the embargo is almost certain.”

This answer caused Franz to frown. Clearly, he had underestimated Britain’s influence in South America. He had assumed that if Austria and France worked together, the South American nations would remain neutral onlookers.

After a brief hesitation, Franz said slowly, “Sound out the French attitude. With our strength alone, we cannot compete with the British in South America.”

As much as he disliked admitting it, the harsh reality was undeniable. Britain had been entrenched in South America for many years, and its latent influence far exceeded what Austria could match.

If not for Austria’s colonial holdings in Central America, the Austrian government would have had no sway over Colombia at all. Simply put, in the era of naval dominance, maritime power determined international influence.

While Austria did possess a respectable navy, it also had many colonies. Attempting to project naval power across every corner of the world was simply unrealistic.

“Yes, Your Majesty!” Wessenberg replied.

…

Austria and France were large and powerful nations. Even if they withdrew from South America now, it wouldn’t cause them significant harm and they could return whenever they wished.

Peru and Bolivia, however, were in a far more precarious position. Both were agricultural nations, and without access to foreign supplies, continuing the war would become nearly impossible.

Small nations were not like great powers. They had no chance for a do-over. Losing a single war often meant losing everything.

While the Austrian government was still formulating its response, the newly established governments of Peru and Bolivia had no time to settle scores with their predecessors. Instead, they urgently launched diplomatic initiatives.

Thus began a diplomatic battle that would determine the future course of South America.

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